Page 168 - ΝΑΥΤΙΚΑ ΧΡΟΝΙΚΑ - ΣΕΠΤΕΜΒΡΙΟΣ 2022

COMMODITIES

about 30% of dirty tanker trade tonne
miles in 2021, according to Signal
Ocean statistics. From 2010 to 2020,
China’s crude imports grew at an aver-
age annual rate of 8.5% and have been
the key demand driver for both crude oil
and crude tanker demand, according to
a BIMCO analysis.
According to the General Administra-
tion of Customs China (GACC), crude oil
volumes in July amounted to 34.1 million
tonnes. Volumes are thereby down 9.2%
on 2021 and 27.2% lower than July 2020.
January through July volumes has fallen
3.9% this year compared to the same
period in 2021, which was already down
5.7% against 2020.
Seaborne volumes have fallen similarly;
however, dirty tanker trade deadweight
tonne miles have dropped 9.6% in the
first seven months of 2022 compared
to last year, according to Signal Ocean
statistics. Compared to 2021, China has
this year favoured imports from the Per-
sian Gulf, Southeast Asia, and Russia
over crude from Brazil, the USA, and
West Africa. On average, longer trades
have been replaced by shorter ones.
“Crude oil demand in China has suf-
fered from low local demand due to
Barclays sees surplus driving Brent COVID-19 lockdowns. A combination of
prices down high product inventories, a cap on retail
British Barclays Bank has revised its oil gasoline and diesel prices once crude
price forecasts. As reported by Reuters, hits USD 80/barrel, and lower export
Barclays expects an oversupply of crude quotas (so far 39% lower than in 2021)
oil on the market in the short term, which discouraging refineries from ramping up
will lead to a drop in prices; therefore, it production have also hurt demand for
lowered its Brent price forecasts by $8 per crude oil,” says BIMCO’s Chief Shipping
barrel for 2022 and 202. As for WTI, the lat- Analyst, Niels Rasmussen.
est forecast is for $99/barrel for both years.
At the same time, the bank notes that LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS (LNG)
due to the impending slowdown of the
economy, which may lead to a drop in oil US: Τhe largest exporter for the first
demand, OPEC+ may further reduce its half of 2022
production. In any event, such a reduc- The role of the US in global energy
tion would not reach 2020 levels. trade has been upgraded due to LNG
OPEC+ countries are expected to as, in the first half of 2022, it became
increase their monthly output by 100,000 the world’s largest liquefied natural gas
bpd in September. (LNG) exporter for the first half of 202.
According to data from International
China’s July imports hit a 4-year low Association for Natural Gas - Cedigaz,
China is the world’s largest importer of US LNG exports increased by 12% in the
crude oil, accounting for approximately first half of 2022 compared with the sec-
25% of global crude import volumes. ond half of 2021, averaging 11.2 billion
The country’s crude imports are also cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). This increase
equal to about 25% of global seaborne was due to– increased LNG export
crude oil volumes, which contributed to capacity, the global increase in natu-

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