Page 164 - ΝΑΥΤΙΚΑ ΧΡΟΝΙΚΑ - ΣΕΠΤΕΜΒΡΙΟΣ 2022

COMMODITIES

GRAINS WHEAT tistical agency said, using satellite imagery
and agroclimatic data to make the estimates.
The latest forecasts on global production, The increase in expected total wheat produc-
consumption, and trade tion is attributable primarily to spring wheat,
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) which is anticipated to rise by 57.3 % to 25.6
recently published its monthly ‘’World Agricul- million tonnes, and durum wheat production
tural Supply and Demand Estimates’’ report for is expected to increase by 113% to 6.5 million
August. The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 tonnes, the agency said.
is for higher supplies, greater consumption, Due to record-high temperatures and little
increased trade, and fractionally lower stocks. rain, the yield in 2021 decreased by 38.1%
Supplies are raised by 4.2 million tons to from 2020 to 31.6 bushels per acre, the low-
1,055.9 million as higher production more than est wheat yield in two decades, according to
offsets reduced beginning stocks. Production Statistics Canada.
is increased to a record 779.6 million tons, pri- As a result, Canadian wheat production in 2021
marily on higher production for Russia, Austra- fell by 38.5% from 2020 to 21.7 million tonnes
lia, and China. Russia’s production is raised 6.5 or an annual loss of 14 million tonnes.
million tons to a record 88.0 million on higher
harvested area and yield. Australia’s produc- SOYBEAN
tion is raised 3.0 million tons to 33.0 million
as increasingly favourable weather conditions World production to reach high record levels
indicate higher yield prospects. China’s produc- With downward adjustments for maise and
tion is increased 3.0 million tons to 138.0 million sorghum more than offsetting an increase
tons on the National Bureau of Statistics sum- for wheat, the International Grains Council’s
mer grain report, primarily on the higher har- forecast on total grains (wheat and coarse
vested area. Partially offsetting these increases grains) production for 2022/2023 is lowered
are reductions for India and the EU. by 4m t m/m (month-on-month), to 2,248m.
Projected 2022/23 world consumption is The Council’s soybean supply and demand fig-
raised 4.4 million tons to 788.6 million, led ures in 2021/22 are little-changed m/m, with
by higher feed and residual use for Russia trade seen dropping by 3% y/y (year-on-year).
and Australia. Projected 2022/23 global Uprated outlooks for leading producers lift
trade is raised 3.2 million tons to 208.6 mil- the 2022/23 output projection by 3m t m/m,
lion on higher exports by Russia, Australia, to a record of 389mt (+11% y/y). Prospects for
Ukraine, Canada, and the United States more growth in uptake of soya products in feed, food
than offsetting lower exports from the EU and industrial sectors should support gains in
and Argentina. Russia’s exports are raised to total use, to a record of 379m t, while solid
a record 42.0 million tons on greater export- inventory accumulation is anticipated. Global
able supplies and expectations that export import demand is tentatively seen rebounding
prices will remain competitive. Projected by 8% y/y, with southern hemisphere exporters
2022/23 world-ending stocks are reduced expected to account for an increased share
fractionally to 267.3 million tons and remain of trade.
at the lowest level in six years.
China lowers its import estimate
Canada’s production set to increase China’s Ministry of Agriculture lowered its
by 55 pct 2021/2022 soybean import estimate by 1.98
Canada’s 2022 wheat production is projected million tonnes, mainly due to reduced demand
to increase by 55.1% year over year to 34.6 mil- for animal feed. The revised estimate talks
lion tonnes, mainly attributable to better than about soybean imports of 91.02 million tonnes
anticipated yields and higher harvest area, notes this year.
Statistics Canada. It would be the third largest Based on the same ministry report, Chinese
wheat crop in Canadian history if realised. soybean imports will be down 8.8% compared
The increase is driven mainly by better grow- to last year, while the forecast for imports in
ing conditions in Western Canada, according 2022/2023 remained unchanged. The report
to Statistics Canada. said the ministry’s estimate for corn produc-
The anticipated yields are expected to rise tion, imports, and consumption remained
by 41.6 % to 51.1 bushels per acre, and the unchanged, although cold temperatures and
harvested area is expected to increase by heavy rains in the northeast may affect the
9.4% to 24.9 million acres, the national sta- market picture.

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