Page 166 - ΝΑΥΤΙΚΑ ΧΡΟΝΙΚΑ - ΣΕΠΤΕΜΒΡΙΟΣ 2022

COMMODITIES

WET BULK CRUDE OIL early June through to early August,
implied gasoline demand (4-week roll-
CARGOES ING: The market is likely to remain in ing average) in the US has lagged the
surplus for the remainder of this year
5-year average by almost 450Mbbls/d.
Stubborn Russian oil output and weaker In addition, Chinese demand has clearly
than expected demand growth mean been disappointing this year, leading to
the oil market is likely to remain in sur- significant revisions to global demand
plus for the remainder of this year and estimates. There had been expectations
into early next year, which should limit that it would come back strong follow-
the upside in oil prices, says ING. Time ing the easing of lockdown measures
spreads also point towards a looser in Beijing and Shanghai in the second
market, with the backwardation in the quarter.
prompt spreads narrowing significantly In 2022, global oil demand is expected
in recent weeks. The IEA estimates to grow by a little over 2MMbbls/d,
that Russian oil production was around while a similar growth is expected for
310Mbbls/d below pre-war levels in July. 2023, which would mean that in 2023,
Despite sanctions, the decline in out- global oil demand will exceed pre-Covid
put has been much more modest than levels. However, next year’s growth will
many in the market expected. IEA num- depend largely on a recovery in China
bers suggest that Russian oil exports and also on how severe any potential
came in at 7.4MMbbls/d in July, which recession in the US and Europe is.
is only slightly below the 7.5MMbbls/d As a result, ING has lowered its oil price
exported over 2021. forecast for the remainder of this year.
Demand growth forecasts have been However, given that inventories are at
consistently downgraded as we have historically low levels, ING still believes
moved through the year. And EIA data that prices will remain elevated, whilst
provides clear evidence of demand limited OPEC spare capacity and uncer-
destruction. The US implied gasoline tainty over how Russian flows will evolve
demand has underperformed since once the EU ban comes into full force
early June. Generally, expect demand should also limit the downside in the
to trend higher over the summer driv- medium term.
ing season. Still, higher prices have led ING has lowered its 3Q22 and 4Q22
to US gasoline demand trending quite Brent forecasts from US$118/bbl and
some distance below the 5-year aver- US$125/bbl to US$100/bbl and US$97/
age (and this average includes 2020 bbl, respectively. Its full-year 2023
data – a period of weaker demand due Brent forecast has been revised from
to Covid). EIA data shows that from US$99/bl to US$97/bbl.

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