Page 170 - ΝΑΥΤΙΚΑ ΧΡΟΝΙΚΑ - ΣΕΠΤΕΜΒΡΙΟΣ 2022

COMMODITIES

ral gas and LNG prices, and increased opments due to the pandemic. However,
global demand, particularly in Europe. project approvals after 2024 are fore-
The EIA estimates that US LNG export cast to fall off a cliff as governments
capacity increased by an average of 1.9 transition away from fossil fuels and
Bcf/d. It is noted that natural gas and accelerate investments in low-carbon
LNG prices also reached record highs energy infrastructure.
in the fourth quarter of 2021 and the The new LNG projects are driven mainly
first half of 2022. by a short-term increase in natural gas
At the same time, European Union and demand in Europe and Asia due to Rus-
United Kingdom LNG imports increased sia’s war in Ukraine and ensuing sanc-
by 63% and averaged 14.8 billion cubic tions and restrictions placed on Russian
feet per day. gas exports. Spending on greenfield
LNG projects this year and next will stay
relatively flat, with $28 billion approved
in 2021 and $27 billion in 2022. Invest-
ments sanctioned in 2023 will show a
modest increase, nearing $32 billion,
before peaking at $42 billion in 2024.
After this date, investments will decline
and drop back near 2020 levels to
reach $2.3 billion in 2029. Despite an
expected jump in 2030, when project
announcements are forecast to total
nearly $20 billion, investment in green-
field LNG is unlikely to ever return to
2024 levels as countries scale up invest-
ments in low-carbon technologies.
Natural gas is a core component of
many countries’ power generation sys-
tems, and although there is the determi-
nation to reduce fossil fuel dependency
and transition to a low-carbon power
mix, demand for LNG is set to grow over
the short term. Global gas demand is
expected to surge 12.5% between now
and 2030, from about 4 trillion cubic
Finally, it is noted that Europe has meters (Tcm) to around 4.5 Tcm. Gas
imported more LNG to compensate for demand in the Americas will remain
lower pipeline imports from Russia and relatively flat up to 2030. In contrast,
to fill historically low natural gas stor- on the back of strong economic growth
age inventories. In the first five months and pro-gas policies from governments,
of the year, LNG imports in the EU and regional demand in Asia and the Pacific
UK averaged 14.8 Bcf/d or 64% of total will soar, growing 30% from about 900
US exports. billion cubic meters (Bcm) to around
1.16 Tcm by 2030. The Americas – pri-
Supply is expected to almost double marily the US – will account for 30% of
in the coming years cumulative gas demand by 2030, while
As the global energy crisis deepens Asia-Pacific will account for 25%.
and countries scramble to secure reli- Helped by this new infrastructure, total
able energy sources, investments in LNG supply is expected to almost dou-
new liquefied natural gas (LNG) infra- ble in the coming years, growing from
structure are set to surge, reaching $42 around 380 million tonnes per annum
billion annually in 2024, Rystad Energy (Mtpa) in 2021 to about 636 Mtpa in
research shows. 2030, with several major LNG projects
These greenfield investments will be 20 already underway or in the pipeline.
times the 2020 amount when a mere LNG output is predicted to peak at 705
$2 billion was invested in LNG devel- Mtpa in 2034.

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