Page 160 - ΝΑΥΤΙΚΑ ΧΡΟΝΙΚΑ - ΣΕΠΤΕΜΒΡΙΟΣ 2022

ANALYSIS

high. The trend of increased Russian coal expected to up its soybean exports in
flows into China is expected to advance the 2022/23 season to 92 million tonnes,
during the fourth quarter when Chinese up more than 19% compared to the pre-
utilities are stock building ahead of the vious marketing year. This gives hope to
winter season. earnings projections for the medium-sized
India, the world’s second-largest coal bulkers that usually carry the commodity
consumer and importer, has been follow- on long-haul voyages.
ing the same pattern: in July, it imported Further, Canada is expected to harvest
1.29 million tonnes of Russian thermal 55% more wheat than last year (about
coal, up 70.3% m/m, making Russia its 34.6 million tonnes) and 42% more canola
third-largest coal supplier. This has (circa 19.5 million tonnes, which would be
been at the expense of Australian coal, the highest in 3 years).
with Queensland’s coal exports in the Overall, China’s feed needs remain ele-
first seven months of the year dropping vated, lending hope to the shipping mar-
by 6% y/y and DBCT’s exports, in par- kets as China is said to be postponing its
ticular, reaching 5-year lows. grain purchases until the last quarter in
anticipation of a large US harvest (esti-
A global food crisis mated at around 123 million tonnes), put-
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacer- ting pressure on commodity prices.
bated the looming food crisis. And, of Although the US dollar is continuously
Τhe weakening course, geopolitics has been at the fore- gaining value and the profit margins of
world economic front of the news, affecting several parts Chinese crushers remain narrow, in the
growth, of our daily lives, with shipping not being 2022/23 marketing year, China is esti-
geopolitics, an exempted from this reality. mated to up its soybean imports by nearly
ongoing global Ukraine and Russia account for 30% of 9% to 98 million tonnes.
health crisis, globally traded wheat and 20% of maise,
food insecurity, which somewhat puts into perspective Volatility is your friend
extreme weather the world’s supply shortage of grains Surely it can be an enemy too but in this
conditions, and oilseeds. To address that issue, the moment in history with an array of unpre-
environmental UN brokered a landmark deal in July to dictable parameters running simultane-
targets and designate a special grain corridor in the ously, it would be easier (and most effec-
decarbonisation Black Sea to enable grain exports from tive) to embrace volatility as an inherent
objectives, make the region and, to a certain extent, ease element of this fascinating industry and
for a sweet and the global food crisis. make it your friend.
sour cocktail. The deal was put forward mainly to free Yes, it is easier said than done. Still, the
ships stranded in Black Sea ports since weakening world economic growth, geo-
February when the Russia-Ukraine war politics, ongoing global health crisis, food
broke out and, to a lesser extent, to insecurity, extreme weather conditions,
allow fresh cargoes to enter the market. environmental targets, and decarbonisa-
The latter is still a work in progress, as it tion objectives make for a sweet and sour
raises a number of logistics and insurance cocktail.
complexities, which many owners do not Overall, the macro tonnage supply/
seem keen to get themselves involved in demand fundamentals remain positive,
for the moment. which implies that the dry bulk outlook
In addition, Ukraine’s grain harvest is also remains cautiously positive for the
forecast to drop by nearly 38% this year, mid to long-term.
owing to the ongoing war and adverse What the low newbuilding orderbook,
weather conditions; thus, we don’t expect modest tonnage growth, projections for
the Black Sea grain trade to have any high fleet utilisation, and the upcoming
significant positive effect on the freight EEXI requirements (expected to slow
rates in the mid-term. In the shorter term, down the world’s fleet) essentially mean
however, Ukrainian officials expect that is that a minimal increase in demand is
Ukraine will see its agricultural exports required for dry bulk players to continue
nearing 6.5 million tonnes in October, to navigate the freight market comfort-
double what was exported in July. ably. And at least, that is something to
As for the world’s largest grain supplier, get us all going towards the final stretch
Brazil, the Latin American country is of the year.

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