Page 163 - ΝΑΥΤΙΚΑ ΧΡΟΝΙΚΑ - MARTIOS 2023

COMMODITIES

EU steel demand to contract in 2023 expected to decline by 3.3 per cent from the previous
All downside factors that materialised in the first year. On the other hand, the forecast for world rice
half of last year have persisted, continuing to impact production was revised downward as lower-than-ex-
the European steel market. In that respect, Eurofer pected output in China more than offset upward
expects apparent steel consumption to see a deep- revisions for Bangladesh and several other countries.
er-than-expected drop of -4.6% for 2022 (previously As a result, global rice output is now predicted to
set at -3.5%). The outlook for 2023 also remains decline by 2.6 per cent from its all-time high in 2021.
negative (-1.6%), paving the way for the fourth steel Looking ahead to 2023, early indications point to
demand recession in five years. Though subject to likely area expansions for winter wheat cropping in
high uncertainty, a modest recovery will be in sight in the northern hemisphere, especially in the United
2024 (+1.6%). Despite a more general resilience of the States of America, driven mainly by elevated wheat
EU economy, in the third quarter of 2022, apparent prices. However, high fertiliser costs may affect appli-
steel consumption reached its lowest level after the cation rates with adverse implications for yields.
pandemic. Low domestic prices could result in a small cutback
The consequences of high energy prices, the continu- in wheat plantings in the Russian Federation, the
ation of the war in Ukraine, and its related disruptions world’s largest exporter. At the same time, severe
are set to drag on and weigh more heavily in the first war-induced impacts in Ukraine are estimated to
half of 2023. That could lead to the second reces- reduce winter wheat area plantings by 40 per cent.
sion (-0.6%) in Steel Weighted Industrial Production On the other hand, record plantings are forecast in
(SWIP) since 2013, according to Eurofer. However, a India, spurred by high market and support prices, and
gradual recovery is expected in 2024 (+1.6%) if a pos- relatively high plantings are projected in Pakistan as
itive scenario is confirmed and confidence is back. standing water from the 2022 floods is causing less
hindrance than initially anticipated.
GRAINS Most of the 2023 coarse grain crops in the southern
hemisphere have been sown. Brazil may post record
Another record-breaking harvest for Brazil maize plantings, while those in Argentina could
Brazil is set for another record-breaking grain har- decrease due to low soil moisture levels. Weather
vest. As a result, the US Department of Agriculture conditions augur well for maize yield prospects in
maintains its corn planted area forecast at 22.5 mil- South Africa.
lion hectares for MY 2022/2023, and corn production In its new brief, FAO predicts international trade in
is forecast at 125.5 MMT for MY 2022/2023, up 8 per cereals in 2022/23 to decline by 1.7 per cent from
cent from the estimated 116 MMT for MY 2021/2022. the previous year’s record level to 474 million tonnes.
The US Department of Agriculture forecasts corn
exports for MY 2022/2023 at 47 MMT, based on SOYBEAN
the continued interest in international markets. The
forecast for rice planted area for MY 2022/2023 is The latest forecasts on global production and
reduced to 1.53 million hectares, based on the con- trade
tinued loss of profitability of rice crops in Brazil and The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently
high maintenance costs. For MY 2022/2023, milled published its monthly “World Agricultural Supply
rice production is forecast at 7.2 MMT of milled rice and Demand Estimates” report for February. Global
equivalent (MRE), a 1.4 per cent drop from 2021/2022. 2022/23 soybean supply and demand forecasts
Brazil is expected to reach record wheat production. include lower production, crush, and ending stocks.
Wheat production for MY 2022/2023 is expected to Global production is reduced by 5.0 million tons
be 9.6 MMT. to 383.0 million on lower crops for Argentina and
Ukraine. Argentina’s crop is reduced by 4.5 million
WHEAT tons to 41.0 million on lower areas and dry weather
conditions impacting yields. Ukraine’s crop is down
Projections for record global outturn 0.4 million tons on lower reported area harvested.
In its new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, FAO Global soybean exports are nearly unchanged, with
raised its forecast for world cereal production in lower exports for Argentina offset by higher ship-
2022; however, global cereal supplies are still fore- ments for Paraguay and Brazil.
cast to tighten in 2022/23. Soybean imports are increased for Argentina while
Global cereal output in 2022 is now forecast at 2,765 down for the EU. EU imports are reduced on the pace
million tonnes or 1.7 per cent below the 2021 out- to date, and higher imports of rapeseed and sun-
turn. Upward revisions for Australia and the Russian flower seed. Pakistan’s imports are also down due to
Federation now point to a record global output for restrictions on import licenses of genetically engi-
wheat in 2022, while total coarse grains production is neered soybeans.

162