Page 164 - ΝΑΥΤΙΚΑ ΧΡΟΝΙΚΑ - MARTIOS 2023

COMMODITIES

WET BULK CARGOES mainly due to reduced demand by road trans- of an Israeli crude oil cargo had taken place expected to rise by 500,000 to 1 bpd this year and
port as vehicles become greener and use
at the company’s Karish field, the first time in
are likely to reach the record level of 11.8 million bpd.
alternative forms of energy. Israeli oil & gas production history that hydro- As Reuters reports, this estimate is based on the
Under the “New Momentum” scenario, one of carbon liquids will be exported to global mar- recovery of fuel demand as the global economy,
CRUDE OIL three scenarios BP is considering, oil demand kets. followed by the Chinese economy, enters the
would remain close to 100 million barrels per Utilising the regionally unique liquids storage post-pandemic era, and new Chinese oil refining
OPEC+: No change in output policy day until the end of the decade before falling and offloading capability of the FPSO “Ener- facilities are starting operations.
The 47 Meeting of the Joint Ministerial Mon- to 93 mb/d in 2035. Under the Accelerated gean Power”, the liquids are offloaded in a The prospect of Chinese record imports is an addi-
th
itoring Committee (JMMC) of OPEC+ took scenario, oil demand will be 91 mb/d in 2030 controlled manner and sold into various global tional optimism factor for the oil market, which also
place via videoconference on Wednesday, 1 and decline to 80 mb/d in 2035. Finally, under markets. That creates a significantly differen- expects to be supported by the OPEC+ group’s
February 2023. the Net Zero scenario, demand oil demand will tiated income stream, fundamentally sepa- production cuts and the ban on Russian crude from
The Committee reviewed the crude oil produc- decrease to 70 mb/d in 2035. rate from gas-derived revenues. The cargo has international markets.
tion data for November and December 2022 According to Spencer Dale, BP’s chief econ- been sold as part of a multi-cargo marketing However, given China and Russia’s trade rela-
and noted the overall conformity for partici- omist, the desire of countries to bolster their agreement with Vitol and was the first to reach tions, a large part of Chinese imports is expected
pating OPEC and non-OPEC countries of the energy security by reducing their dependency Europe from a new East Med energy source. to come from Russia. The effect of this develop-
Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). on imported energy and turning to domesti- ment on the tanker market is positive since tank-
The Members of the JMMC reaffirmed their cally produced energy suggests that the war China to hit record imports in 2023 ers are exclusively engaged in the transportation
commitment to the DoC, which extends to the in Ukraine is likely to accelerate the pace of The global economic outlook looks positive, of Russian crude, and, therefore, the supply on
rd
end of 2023 as agreed at the 33 OPEC and the energy transition. especially regarding oil trade, as analysts esti- the international market is reduced. At the same
non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM) on mate China will import a record amount of crude time, the output of Chinese refineries is increasing,
5 October 2022. They urged all participating Israel enters the exporters club oil in 2023. strengthening tonne-miles, as a significant part of
countries to achieve full conformity and adhere Energean confirmed that the first-ever lifting More specifically, China’s crude imports are the refined products are exported.
to the compensation mechanism.
OPEC+ agreed in early October 2022 to
reduce production by 2 million barrels per day
from November and for 2023.

Forecast for rising demand
The International Energy Agency published its
Oil Market Report (OMR) in January. According
to estimates, global oil demand is set to rise
by 1.9 mb/d in 2023 to a record 101.7 mb/d, with
nearly half the gain from China following the
lifting of its Covid restrictions. Jet fuel remains
the largest source of growth, up 840 kb/d.
The IEA expects world oil supply growth in
2023 to slow to 1 mb/d following last year’s
OPEC+-led growth of 4.7 mb/d. An overall non-
OPEC+ rise of 1.9 mb/d will be tempered by
an OPEC+ drop of 870 kb/d due to expected
declines in Russia. The US ranks as the world’s
leading source of supply growth and, along
with Canada, Brazil, and Guyana, hits an annual
production record for a second straight year.

Demand to peak around 2030
Global oil demand is expected to peak from
the late 2020s to the early 2030s as Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine has accelerated clean
energy investment. Governments are looking
to boost energy security by increasing the
share of renewables in their countries’ energy
mix, BP emphasises in its Energy Outlook 2023
report.
In its report, the energy giant notes that oil
demand will show signs of stability over the
next ten years or so before declining by 2050,

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