Page 147 - ΝΑΥΤΙΚΑ ΧΡΟΝΙΚΑ - MARTIOS 2023

FREIGHT MARKETS

Chinese authorities are gradually Furthermore, it seems that we approach
easing restrictions on land sales, all the end of the 2-year long Sino-Austra-
acting in favour of the Chinese prop- lian trade spat as Chinese utilities are
erty market and therefore offering a stepping up their purchases of Aus-
bullish indication for dry bulk trade. tralian coal, while the world’s second
Moreover, in mid-February China largest coal importer, India, invoked
announced the construction of a new in late February an emergency law to
mega airport in Nantong area (a prom- essentially force local utilities that run
ising project said to handle circa 40 on imported coal to maximise electric-
million passengers annually), which we ity generation, with the aim to meet an
feel sets the tone for robust infrastruc- expected surged power demand this
ture spending and forthcoming stim- summer – both perceived as good news
uli. Further, a new High-Speed Railway for the dry bulk market.
(HSR) connecting Shanghai with Anhui Additionally, Brazilian soybean output
province is currently under discussions is forecast to reach the record 153 mil-
by the National Development and lion tonnes this year, out of which 91
Reform Commission. million tonnes are intended for export.
Of course, these grandiose plans the If realised, this will register a yearly
Chinese officials often announce in increase to the tune of 15% and will
tandem with supportive policy mea- therefore lend significant support to
sures, tend to have a large time lag the Panamax and Supramax bulkers
between the announcement and the that benefit markedly from the long-
implementation and even larger delay haul grain trade.
for when these actually bear fruits on However, expectations for Ukrainian
the dry cargo market. They do, none- grain shipments in 2023 are somewhat
theless, offer a positive undertone on bearish, as the ongoing war, aban-
what to expect. doned fields, inflation and challenging
logistics, make the case that this year’s
grain harvest will be the lowest since
the Ukrainian independence.
That said, lately we have seen some
concerted efforts for the grain cor-
ridor deal (ending March 18th) to be
extended for a year, which can bring
some positive momentum to the agri-
cultural market in the region.

A balancing act
All in all, a mixture of both positive
and negative indicators carve out the
current and projected state of the dry
bulk freight market and make, once
again, for a sweet and sour cocktail.
Of course, this fascinating market is
intertwined with the world’s destiny
and the global geopolitical and eco-
nomic progress.
Given the widespread uncertainty which
influences key metrics, how market
players navigate next few months can
prove to be a balancing act. However,
we have reasonable hope that healthy
profit margins will be sustainable
throughout the year, notwithstanding
the unavoidably highly volatile ecosys-
tem which we all operate in.

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