Page 36 - ΝΑΥΤΙΚΑ ΧΡΟΝΙΚΑ - ΣΕΠΤΕΜΒΡΙΟΣ 2022

THE POTENTIAL EFFECT OF AN IRANIAN
NUCLEAR DEAL ON TANKERS
Talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal and poten-
tially ease oil sanctions are making progress, which
has thrown the spotlight onto a sizeable cache of
crude held by Tehran that could be swiftly dis-
patched to buyers in the event an agreement is
reached.
According to a Bloomberg report, citing data from
ship-tracking firm Kpler, about 93 million barrels
of Iranian oil and derivatives are stored on ships
in the Persian Gulf, off Singapore, and near China.
Therefore, if Iran legitimately returns to the oil
markets, these cargoes can relatively quickly
inundate the markets. Such a development will
push oil prices down, possibly changing the supply
and demand balance in the tanker market. After
all, some tankers operate exclusively in oil and
derivatives transportation from countries subject
to sanctions. Once the sanctions against Iran are
lifted, some will return to the international mar-
kets.
In the medium and long term, Iran will need to
bring its output back to the previous high levels
and fully consolidate its position in the global oil
market. Thus, it will be able to fill the gap of Rus-
sia in the European markets, as Russian oil will
soon be a thing of the past indefinitely.
If such a scenario materialises, the tonne-miles of
Aframaxes and Suezmaxes could increase. These
tankers have played a leading role in Iran’s sea-
borne oil exports in the past and seem a natural
3.1% increase from July on a year-on-year basis. choice for transporting cargo to European markets.
In addition, China’s iron ore imports, so far in 2022,
fell by 3.3% year-on-year, accounting for 20% of CONTAINERSHIPS: THE OMENS ON THE
the quantities carried by bulk carriers. Neverthe- SUPPLY SIDE
less, estimates point to a recovery in China’s iron A significant increase in the number of ships in the
ore imports, which would benefit the Capesizes global containership fleet is predicted from 2023
market. onwards, as the very good charter market in 2021
According to Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping pushed shipowners to bulk orders, while demand
Analyst at BIMCO, China’s recently announced for newbuildings looks stable this year as well.
economic measures focusing on infrastructure According to Clarksons, at the beginning of
development are creating optimism for increased August, the containership orderbook stood at 7
bulk carrier demand; however, the real estate crisis million TEUs, while as a percentage of the existing
may continue to weigh on iron ore demand. fleet, it reached 28% compared to the correspond-
The Chinese real estate market is plagued, among ing 8% in the fourth quarter of 2020. Clarksons
other things, by high debt but also falling sales estimates that between 2023 and 2024, 5.2m
and prices. In addition, Beijing’s zero-tolerance TEUs will be delivered, bringing capacity growth
pandemic policy further hampers consumer spend- to 8.1% next year and 7% in 2024.
ing and business demand. Any new and prolonged Interestingly, 58% of the capacity ordered this year
lockdowns will slow the real estate sector’s recov- will be able to consume alternative fuels, marking
ery, negatively impacting iron ore demand. a significant increase compared to 23% in 2021. At
Finally, Niels Rasmussen underlined that any the beginning of August, the percentage of con-
recovery would be a godsend for the Capesizes tainerships on the orderbook that would be able
market, as the relevant Baltic Exchange Capesize to consume alternative fuels was around 32%.
Index recently dropped by 85.5% due to oversup- It is noted that an increase in ship supply is not an
ply caused by reduced port congestion. entirely positive omen, as it leads to a decrease

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