Page 289 - ΝΑΥΤΙΚΑ ΧΡΟΝΙΚΑ - ΜΑΙΟΣ 2024

According to customs data, coal imports, mainly
from Australia and Indonesia, were up by roughly
88% as of 15 March compared with the same
period last year. In the first two months of the
year, output from domestic mines also rose 3.3
per cent, which, according to official estimates,
typically meets about half of Vietnam’s demand.

IRON ORE-STEEL

The short-term outlook for steel demand
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) has
recently released its Short Range Outlook (SRO)
steel demand forecast for 2024 and 2025. world-
steel forecasts that this year, demand will see a
1.7% rebound to reach 1,793 Mt. Steel demand is
forecast to grow by 1.2% in 2025 to reach 1,815 Mt.
Commenting on the outlook, Dr Martin Theuringer,
Chairman of the worldsteel Economics Commit-
tee, said, “After two years of negative growth and
severe market volatility since the COVID crisis in
2020, we see early signs of global steel demand
settling in a growth trajectory in 2024 and 2025.
The global economy continues to show resilience
despite facing several strong headwinds, the lin-
gering impact of the pandemic and Russia’s inva-
sion of Ukraine, high inflation, high costs and falling
household purchasing power, rising geopolitical
uncertainties, and forceful monetary tightening. As
From production to seaborne transport & consumption we approach the end of this monetary tightening
the country’s total energy production in the previ- cycle, we observe that tighter credit conditions
ous fiscal year was hydroelectric. This level is well and higher costs have led to a sharp slowdown in
below the 2020 ten-year average of 12.3%. housing activity in most major markets and have
This development has been attributed to the hampered the manufacturing sector globally. While
decrease recorded in the construction of new hydro it seems the world economy will experience a soft
infrastructure and the unusually low monsoon rain- landing from this monetary tightening cycle, we
fall in India, which depleted water resources. expect to see global steel demand growth remain-
Edited by: Giannis Theodoropoulos On the other hand, in the last fiscal year, power ing weak and market volatility remaining high on
generation from coal in India grew by 13.9%. The lagged impact of monetary tightening, high costs
country’s growing energy needs are pushing it to and high geopolitical uncertainties”.
the easy and reliable option of coal. worldsteel expects that steel demand in China in
2024 will remain around the level of 2023 as real
Vietnam doubles coal imports under fear of blackout estate investments continue to decline, but the
Vietnam’s Q1 coal imports doubled compared to corresponding steel demand loss will be offset by
the same period in 2023 as the government tried growth in steel demand coming from infrastructure
to reassure foreign investors that factories would investments and manufacturing sectors. For 2025,
not face a repeat of last year’s power shortages. worldsteel sees China’s steel demand returning to
The Southeast Asian country has been under a downtrend with a 1% decline.
increasing pressure since last summer when it was This projection suggests that by 2025, China’s
unable to guarantee a continuous power supply dur- steel demand will be significantly lower than the
ing a prolonged heatwave. In fact, some factories recent peak demand year, 2020. This projection is
were forced to temporarily suspend production. also in line with worldsteel's view that China might
During a recent meeting with foreign investors, have reached its peak steel demand, and the coun-
Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh reas- try’s steel demand is likely to continue to decline
sured them that last year’s blackouts would not be in the medium term as China gradually moves
repeated. Vietnam’s inability to harness renewable away from a real estate and infrastructure invest-
energy makes coal imports a one-way street. ment-dependent economic development model.

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