Page 290 - ΝΑΥΤΙΚΑ ΧΡΟΝΙΚΑ - ΜΑΙΟΣ 2024

COMMODITIES

For 2023, worldsteel’s apparent steel use (ASU) rebound in 2024, the region’s steel demand is
Steel demand estimate for China is based on official statis- expected to finally show a meaningful recovery
will see a tics and suggests a 3.3% drop. That represents with a 5.3% growth in 2025. The forecasted steel
1.7% rebound a downward revision of the 2023 estimate for demand for the EU in 2024 is only 1.5 Mt higher
to reach steel demand growth rate by around 5 percent- than the pandemic trough in 2020.
1,793 Mt in age points from the previous forecast made in In stark contrast with the EU, the US steel demand
2024. October 2023. Chinese steel demand in Q4 last continues to show healthy fundamentals for steel
year had indeed been weaker than what world- demand. The country’s steel demand is expected
steel expected back in October 2023. However, to quickly return to a growth path in 2024 after a
indicators of major steel-using sectors suggest sharp drop led by the housing market slowdown in
that the actual steel demand was better than the 2023 thanks to strong investment activity, which
estimated ASU. received a boost from the Inflation Reduction Act
Worldsteel’s projections for the world, excluding and a gradual recovery in housing activity.
China, suggest a broad-based growth in steel
demand at a relatively strong level of 3.5% per GRAINS
annum over 2024-25.
• India has emerged as the strongest The effects of climate change on US corn and
driver of steel demand growth since soybean yields
2021, and the recent projections suggest Although US corn and soybean yields have dou-
Indian steel demand will continue to bled since 1970, the damaging effects of extreme
charge ahead with 8% growth in its steel weather events such as droughts and floods have
demand over 2024 and 2025, driven by slowed yield gains and interrupted decades of rap-
continued growth in all steel-using sec- idly rising agricultural productivity. Such extreme
tors and especially by continued strong weather events are expected to become more
growth in infrastructure investments. In common, according to the United Nations’ Inter-
2025, the demand for steel in India is governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A
projected to be almost 70 million tonnes recent study by USDA’s Economic Research Ser-
higher than in 2020. vice (ERS) modelled how climate-linked changes
• Other emerging parts of the world, such in temperatures and precipitation, especially east
as MENA and ASEAN, are expected to of the 100th meridian where farms are predom-
show accelerating growth in their steel inantly rain-fed, might affect future US corn and
demand over 2024-2025 after a signifi- soybean yields and what that would mean for
cant slowdown over 2022-2023. world- markets and trade through the middle of the next
steel observes that mounting difficulties decade. Using 2016 as a base year, the model esti-
in the ASEAN region, such as political mated an increase in US corn yields but a decrease
instability and erosion of competitive- in soybean yields by the year 2036. These changes
ness, might lead to a lower trend in steel would also affect exports of US corn and soy-
demand growth going forward. beans. In the model, corn exports are projected
• The developed world is also expected to increase by 0.36 per cent by 2036, compared
to show a strengthening recovery with with 2016, while soybean exports drop by 1.17 per
1.3% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025, as it is cent, causing a total decrease of as much as $256
expected that steel demand will finally million by 2036 for the two crops.
show a meaningful pick up in the EU in US corn yields were estimated to increase 3.1 per
2025 and continued resilience in the US, cent by 2036, representing historically slow yield
Japan, and Korea. growth compared with previous decades. In con-
The EU (and the UK) remains the region that trast, soybean yields were projected to reverse
is currently facing the biggest challenges. The their multidecade growth trend and decrease
region and, in particular, its steel-using sectors by 3.0 per cent. With the yield changes, the use
are challenged on a multitude of fronts – geopo- of land in corn and soybean production also
litical shifts and uncertainty, high inflation, mon- was expected to shift. US corn producers were
etary tightening and partial withdrawal of fiscal expected to plant fewer acres of corn because of
support, and still high energy and commodity increased yields, for an estimated 0.11 per cent net
prices. The persistence of these downside fac- increase in projected US corn production by 2036.
tors resulted in a major drop in the region’s steel Soybean producers, however, were projected to
demand in 2023 to the lowest level since the increase acreage, offsetting the impact of the
year 2000 and substantial downward revisions expected yield decrease and resulting in a net
of the forecast for this year. After only a technical production increase of about 1 per cent by 2036.

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