Page 294 - ΝΑΥΤΙΚΑ ΧΡΟΝΙΚΑ - ΜΑΙΟΣ 2024

COMMODITIES

WET BULK

CARGOES

CRUDE OIL

Oil demand growing at a slower pace as post-
Covid rebound runs its course
Global oil demand growth is currently in the midst
of a slowdown and expected to ease to 1.2 mil-
lion barrels a day (mb/d) this year and 1.1 mb/d
in 2025 – bringing a peak in consumption into
view this decade, according to the International
Energy Agency (IEA). This is primarily the result
of growth normalisation following the disruptions
of 2020-2023 when the COVID-19 pandemic
shook oil markets and then the global energy
crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Despite the forecast deceleration, this level of
oil demand growth remains largely in line with
the pre-COVID trend, even amid muted expec-
tations for global economic growth this year and
increased deployment of clean energy technol-
ogies.
In both 2022 and 2023, global oil consumption
rose by more than 2 mb/d as economies contin-
ued their recoveries from the COVID-19 shock
and saw spikes in personal mobility, along with
exceptional releases of pent-up demand for travel
and tourism. While there are reasonable grounds
for uncertainty about how complete the global demand growth and considerable progress on
recovery is, both oil demand data and mobil- the deployment of clean energy transition tech-
ity indicators suggest that its pace has slowed nologies mean that the oil market is set to enter a
sharply and that the period of demand growth new and consequential period of transformation.
above the historical average is coming to an end.
While ΙΕΑ expects growth in oil consumption in The US reimposes sanctions on the Venezuelan
2024 and 2025 to remain robust by historical oil industry
standards, structural factors will lead to a grad- After a careful review of the current situation in
ual easing of oil demand growth over the rest of Venezuela, the United States determined Nicolas
this decade. Continued rapid gains in the mar- Maduro and his representatives have not fully
ket share of EVs, particularly in China; steady met the commitments made under the electoral
improvements in vehicle fuel economies; and, roadmap agreement, which was signed by Madu-
notably, efforts by Middle Eastern economies, ro’s representatives and the opposition in Barba-
especially Saudi Arabia, to reduce the quantity dos in October 2023. Therefore, General License
of oil used in power generation are together 44, which authorises transactions related to oil
expected to generate an overall peak in demand or gas sector operations in Venezuela, expired
by the turn of the decade. on 18 April.
Oil remains extremely important to the global “Despite delivering on some of the commitments
economy, and across some of its key applica- made under the Barbados electoral roadmap, we
tions, alternatives still cannot easily be substi- are concerned that Maduro and his represent-
tuted. In the absence of additional energy and atives prevented the democratic opposition
climate policies and an increased investment from registering the candidate of their choice,
push into clean energy technologies, the decline harassed and intimidated political opponents,
in global oil demand following the peak will not be and unjustly detained numerous political actors
a steep one, leaving demand close to current lev- and members of civil society”, announced the US
els for some time. Nevertheless, cooling Chinese Department of State. “We again call on Maduro

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