Page 292 - ΝΑΥΤΙΚΑ ΧΡΟΝΙΚΑ - ΜΑΙΟΣ 2024

COMMODITIES

lion), Japan ($4 million), South Korea ($4 million),
and other countries ($28 million). Exports of soy-
beans, however, were projected to decline by $319
million across all trading partners. A $171 million
reduction in soybean exports to China, where US
market share of soybean trade has retracted in
recent years, was the largest projected decrease.
The United States contributed more to the
global corn supply than China, India, and Russia
combined in 2020. US soybean production was
exceeded only by Brazil’s harvest that year, mak-
ing the United States a top producer and exporter
of corn and soybeans.

The latest projections on grains
Entirely because of a downgraded outlook for
maise, tied mainly to rising disease and drought
stress in parts of the southern hemisphere, the
recent International Grains Council’s forecast
for 2023/24 total grains (wheat and coarse
grains) production is cut by 3m t m/m (month-
on-month), to 2,301m. Consumption is raised by
3m t m/m, mostly on an upward adjustment for
wheat. With smaller supply and increased uptake,
the projection for closing stocks (aggregate of
respective local marketing years) is lowered by
8m t to 591m. The outlook for trade is lifted again,
now seen at a three-year peak.
The 2024/25 grains supply outlook is slightly
tighter compared to last month’s initial projec-
tions. In addition to a smaller carry-in, the pro-
duction forecast is cut by 10m t, to 2,322m, pre-
dominantly due to a smaller US maise figure, but
Some States were expected to feel the effects with total output still seen at a new peak. Despite
of climate change on yields more profoundly a scaled-back outlook for consumption, mainly
than others. Declines in productivity were con- for US feed/residual use, end-season carryovers
centrated in the central States, where corn and are placed 9m t down m/m, at 592m, seen frac-
soybean yields were projected to decrease by tionally higher y/y (year-on-year).
14.5 per cent and 7.1 per cent, respectively. Cli- With customs data pointing to bigger than antic-
mate-linked yield declines in Kansas, Nebraska, ipated dispatches to key markets more recently,
Oklahoma, and North and South Dakota were the the outlook for world soybean trade in 2023/24 is
most extreme, projected as great as 25.4 per cent uprated slightly to around 167m t, albeit still rep-
for corn and 43.4 per cent for soybeans. Balanc- resenting a 3% y/y decline. Tentative projections
ing those expectations, yields were expected to for supply and demand in 2024/25 are broadly
increase in four States in the Corn Belt, the region intact, including record production, consumption,
that produces about 80 per cent of US corn and stocks and trade.
soybeans. On average, yields in Illinois, Missouri, There are only marginal adjustments to the rice
Iowa, and Wisconsin were projected to increase supply and demand balance sheet for 2023/24,
5.7 per cent for corn and 1.2 per cent for soybeans with global end-season reserves seen 1m t higher
by 2036. Outside the Corn Belt, small, mostly m/m, at 167m (-4m). Trade is forecast unchanged
offsetting yield losses and gains for both crops from before, at 50m t, modestly lower y/y. A
were projected. reduced figure for China trims the 2024/25
The yield results also have implications for US global production forecast by 1m t m/m to 520m
exports of corn and soybeans. By 2036, exports (512m), but, with consumption cut, inventories
of corn were projected to increase by the equiva- are uprated slightly. The Council’s expectations
lent of $63 million (in 2016 dollars), with additional for trade in 2025 (Jan/Dec) are maintained at
shipments to China ($18 million), Mexico ($9 mil- about 50m t, steady y/y.

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